Essence of Trading: How I Kicked A Bad Habit

iStock_000013112749SmallI used to take seasonal allergy medicine religiously every year. At the beginning of spring, while people keep talking about how great the coming season will be, I would look allergy medication to stock up. It is not just a matter of inconvenience taking those medications, it is also a major annoyance in life as it will make you drowsy and tired all day long.

Several years ago I learned that those meds are not really helping me in fighting the allergy. They were making me sick and non-productive all summer long. Since these meds is not a cure to my sickness, trading one set of symptoms for another set does not make sense to me.

The logical conclusion is sensible – stop taking those meds.

The fear was that I have taken those meds for so long I would suffer way worst without them. It is like being hooked onto drugs.

It took a leap of faith one summer for me to stop taking those meds all together. Allergy meds do not work well if you do not start taking them consistently before the allergy season starts. Without the build up of the medication in your body they do not function well.

It was very bad at first. The itchiness in my eyes and the stuffed nose made that first summer completely unbearable. I could not breath. I could not sleep. Yet I survived. After the fact, the down time I spent sleeping and resting is no worse than the time I turned into a zombie while on the medications that even coffee cannot kick me into full alert.

Then year after year, the struggle continues. I stay the course and the allergy symptoms reduced back down to how I feel when I was a kid. It is bad but it is now bearable.

The decision to take the allergy medication was a convenience. It was not informed decision. Knowing the fact that these meds are very bad for my liver, however, does not translate automatically into a simple answer of saying no to these meds. It took years of suffering and determination to reverse the effects of these meds.

Kicking a habit, especially kicking a bad habit, is against our nature.

What is the point of telling this story?

What does it have to do with trading?

Trading is an activity where the minority of players win. Majority of players have to be on the wrong side of the game to facilitate the transfer of wealth. In another words, to come out ahead in trading, you have to be acting against human nature so that you will not fall into the group where the majority belongs.

The funny thing is that when you decided to stop doing something harmful to your trading, you would experience physical symptoms making you uncomfortable just like me stop taking the allergy meds. It is one of the things I learned from observing trader trainees. It happens all the time.

The urge to not follow the plan, to adjust the stop a bit further away, to add more to a position when you already maxed out your leverage, etc. is so great that I observed some of the trainees not able to control their bodies. They turned dead focus on the screen, clinching their fists, face turned pale, bodies uncontrolled swinging, etc.

The moment they violated their own plans and went back to their old routines, the physical symptoms disappeared.

But so did the money in their trading accounts.

It is not easy to kick the bad trading habits. We can probably kick many extremely stupid ones but some will always stay with us and haunt us again and again. At best, one can to learn to suppress these bad habits. The struggle will always continue because it is what trading does – pitting us against human nature.

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Essence of Trading: What You Want Isn’t What You Need

iStock_000012959689XSmallA dilemma I often witness from my unique position in talking to potential investors and hedge funds is that people often do not know what they need. I have several interesting stories to share addressing this issue. You may find the story relates well to someone you know.

A Small Hedge Fund Doing HFT

The fund manager wants to develop HFT algos and solicit clients based on a sales pitch that his fund can do great with their HFT program. The fund has several models ready and have been seeking opinions from others whether their models are good enough for deployment. The models of course are showing great performances on the historical data.

I pointed out that their models are not even close to what HFT is. Having technical indicators applied on tick data assuming the best fill possible do not produce HFT and they do not work in general anyway. I directed them to read the basics on HFT and told them nicely these models will not work even if they have co-location servers at the exchanges.

Being the only opposing voice obviously does not help. Last time I heard about them was from a friend who had not been able to collect his coding fees of the models from the fund.

What the fund need are slower daytrading models that they have experience working with. After all, a fund has to be profitable. I understand that the fund has no marketing buzz to sell to the high net worth potential clients. Being profitable in the hedge fund space is not enough to get clients these days.

Entrepreneur Turns Daytrader

A successful entrepreneur who made it in the import/export business sold his business and retired in his early 50s.

Out of boredom he started to daytrade the financial markets. First he tried out forex and gave up shortly after. The volatility during the 2008 crisis cost him dearly. Next he set his eyes on the stock market indices. He made a killing at the peak of the financial crisis in 2009 but he has been losing money since. He bled most of his winnings by the end of 2012.

Some mutual friends learned about his frustrations and introduced him to meet with me.

He asked for trading signals to short the stock market top. What he wanted was that the stock market to top out and keep falling. He also wanted people to agree with him that the stock market was going lower.

I pointed out that he was living in the past. He was replaying the history in his mind so often that a rare event like the financial crisis became something that he thought would happen again easily. Every news or event became a sign that the stock market would top out.

He is still learning to snap out of the past and pay attention to what is happening now. A good sign is that he no longer short the Emini S&P blindly just because of some supposedly negative news hit the media. And yes, I convinced him to learn reading the charts and control his risk.

What this guy really need is the truth about the stock market. He is a pretty smart person who was able to grow a business into decent size and have it sold for good profit. Once he started to see the risk side of the trading business he can teach himself to control the risk as he has the discipline necessary. From there it is just a matter of time for him to find his own profitable way.

Retiree Wanted To Become A Daytrader

I met with this retired lady pretty much out of the blue. She is a relative to one of my old buddies in my hedge fund days. She has been very frustrated with her saving and her money has been chipping away for several years. She called one day asking directly if I can manage money for her. It is a surprise call because not that many people know about my side business.

In short, she wanted a very significant return from her limited risk capital. She was willing to risk up to $50,000 and would like to get a return of 50% on that annually. She was and still is a very conservative person. She understands the importance to protect majority of her money so that her basic living cost is covered. Thus the $50,000 is indeed risk money she can part with.

I explained that it was very difficult for me to do this for her because I no longer taking new clients. It would also be very difficult to find an advisor who can promise her the kind of result she is looking for. At the end, I also declined her request to learn daytrading from me because her character will make it very difficult for her to take on risk routinely.

Funny how things turned out. I managed to convince her to take on a part-time job doing things she loves to do. She is now a sommelier, resolved the cash flow problem and a happy person again.

What she need was a solution to her cash flow problem, not money management service. The angle she was looking at was restricted by her past. Hence she was not able to find a solution to her own problem until she has someone open her eyes to other possibilities.

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