Ms. Rashcke’s 2 hour presentation of her trading style with question and answer period at the end of the presentation.
Several key things to take home from her presentation:
1. You cannot just watch a presentation and assume that you have learned the method,
"You have to make it your own."
2. Working out the statistics of a method yourself is important because that makes you understand the intricate details when the method works and when it doesn’t
3. On switching strategy based on different trading environments
There is no such thing as a universal method to be applied to all market conditions.
You have to be flexible like Ms. Raschke or stay out of the market environment where your mindset and method do not work well.
What Ms. Raschke says in the presentation is not something new. It is pretty much the same presentation she has done at major trading conferences and various exchanges for many years. If you are a newcomer in trading, it is a great introduction with many good ideas and tips to take home.
[DTBpromo]
I have been tracking the 2 period ROC on the daily for a while now, just out of habit. I am not convinced that it has any major value. Perhaps I should just post them in the evening, and we can all see how it does.
I think 2-period ROC for LBR is like Linus’s blanket =)
Appreciate it SS !
Yep. All indicators are, to a certain point. If it works for her, great.
But what gets me is that she admits that the indicator should be put on hold if the price action suggests a trend.
If indicators can be turned off and on if price action suggests it should, why not simply ditch the indicators and just use price action? Looks to me like a superfluous extra step in the already-exhausting process of decision making. Indeed, that is much of what makes trading hard–constant decision-making. I can only do so much before my reserves are gone.
I’ll (try to) post the 2 day ROC, based on the Street Smarts book, in the evening until at least the New Year.
Going into Monday, bias was LONG in SPX (cash)
Going into Tuesday, the bias is still long since market closed over 1768.70.
If Tuesday’s close is less than 1786.01, then the long bias will be over.
Tuesday’s close is less than 86.01 so Wednesday’s bias is DOWN.
If Wednesday’s close (SPX) is higher than 1792.33, then Thursday’s bias will flip to UP. If Wednesday’s close is less than 1792.33, then bias for Thursday stays DOWN.
The experiment so far looks like coin flip.
Five minute flips beats coin flip.
Wednesday’s close was higher than 1792.33, so Thursday’s bias was up.
Since TH close on the SPX was 1809.53, and that is higher than 1805.21, the bias for Friday is UP.
If F’s close is less than 1839.15, then Monday’s bias will be DOWN.
For those looking to go long on gold, we need a close on Friday above 1174.70 on the Feb contract.
The system went short gold on Tuesday close, at 1230.40.
As for me, if gold gets down closer to 1000 (long-time resistance), THEN i will be looking to buy.
Unless SPX rockets up 12+ points in the next two hours, the 2 ROC bias for Monday will be DOWN.
Bias for Monday is down.
If Monday’s SPX close is over 1818.49, then Tuesday’s bias will be UP.
And I say whatever, since I will be away on vacation. Happy Holidays!
You need a vacation. Have fun!
I will dig out some old notes on the 2-day ROC. I think I did that some 15+ years ago. Let’s see if the behaviour is still the same =)