Essence of Trading: The Three Pillars of Critical Thinking (Part 4)

chalkboard_nomoreexcuses… continue from part 3

"The only thing more expensive than education is ignorance"

– Benjamin Franklin

Self-correction is the most difficult part in critical thinking. We may be very logical in analyzing a situation. We can be very objective in evaluating things. Yet, it is very difficult to apply these two skills onto ourselves. Overcoming this barrier is important in giving us the ability to control our weaknesses in trading and adapt to the ever changing market environment.

Self-correction is a multiple step process. First, we need to identify a potential problem within ourselves. Then, a correction strategy has to be derived. Finally, follow the the strategy to correct our beliefs, or condition our minds to take on the preferred behaviour over the original one.

Obstacles Against Self-Correction

First obstacle to self-criticism is our natural tendency to lie to ourselves. It is in fact a normal behaviour among majority of adults to overestimate their skills and down play their share of mistakes in something that failed to workout. It is an essential psychological make up for human to be more forgiving to themselves so that they would survive the hardship in life. This innate quality makes judging ourselves critically especially difficult.

Second obstacle is our inability to correct existing behaviours. This tendency in human enabled our species better survival chance in the natural environment. It is to our best interest to not question our ability when we are living in the wild. Casting doubts on one self can lead to hesitation. In life or death situations, such hesitations can be the end of our lives.

As in animal kingdom, the necessary skills for survival are all developed in the early age of an animal’s life. Specialized skills like hunting are trained from observation and game play among peers. There is no learning and correction after that once the animal hunters are on their own. The main corrective function is shut off for good after an animal has reached adulthood. Since our bodies including the brains are still mainly a copy of our ancient ancestors, it is no surprise that majority of us have difficulties correcting or changing our behaviour once we reached mid 30s.

Two out of the three steps making up the self-correction process are against our nature. No wonder why there are so many people failed to overcome this obstacle to improve their trading.

Be Honest With Yourself

To solve the first obstacle, you may have to solve an even bigger problem – being honest with yourself.

Since being honest with one self can be very difficult for some and that the only thing we are interested in is to improve our trading only, we can reduce the difficulty by being honest with ourselves in trading only.

Start with something simple. Criticize yourself on things that are obviously bad and difficult to deny. Write them down.

You need to crack your auto defense mechanism first with something minor and then move up the scale slowly. Once you are able to conduct self criticism in a constructive way, you will be able to identify more issues over time. The goal is to allow yourself to see better of what can be done to improve your trading.

There is no point to criticize yourself outside of trading because your interest is not to make yourself into a better person per se. I am not saying that is not a good thing. Just that I am not a "do no evil preacher" either.

For those interested in more about human behaviour in this aspect, you can watch the TED Talk by Dan Ariely, Our buggy moral code. It is a more thorough presentation on how we cheat and being dishonest in general. There are a lot of interesting topics he has touched in the presentation. At the end of the video, Mr. Ariely’s discussion on the difficulty for someone to accept the the opinions from other people when their intuition is contradictory to those opinions strikes home for many aspiring traders.

Kick Start Your Learning / Self-Correction Capability

To solve the obstacle of unable to correct our costly behaviour, there is a simple solution – keep learning new things.

As oppose to focus on just trading, which is the big hurdle you are facing, try doing something else that is simple yet challenging task. It can be a puzzle game. It can be building toy models. It can be learning new ideas and concepts from TED. The feedback from successfully acquiring new knowledge and insights from these tasks will make it easier for you to see the problems hidden within your current trade plan and also improve your willingness to adopt new strategies over the existing one that is not working for you.

It is a trick that triggers your mind to open up a little to different views. By giving it a small reward of satisfaction for adapting and learning new things, your mind is conditioned to be more acceptable to changes on your existing behaviours.

Do not, however, undertake another new challenge that is as complex as trading at the same time. It will defeat the purpose of stimulating your mind for the benefit of improving your trading. Having two daunting tasks instead of one can be very discouraging.

When Nothing Works There Is Always External Help

When you cannot see any problem in yourself or your trading game plan but you are struggling to become profitable, it means that you are not critical enough on yourself. It is probably best to seek for help from someone else. What you need desperately is an honest opinion on you and your strategy.

Due to the fact that the person who is going to help you will have to spend considerable amount of time to understand your situation and your game plan, a trading buddy may not be able to assist you. A coach or adviser with expertise in trading can be very costly and difficult to find as many of them are hired by trading firms to assist their in-house traders. If you do have the resources to hire a reputable coach, it is definitely something you can look into.

Going online and taking your issues to public forums may not be a good idea although you may get lucky at times. The disadvantage of taking your problem to a public trading forum is that people tend to pile on you as oppose to giving you constructive advices. There are also forum trolls who will do anything to seek attention and ruin your thread. If you are lucky, however, you may encounter some nice people who can point you to the right direction or people. Just do not put too much expectation in finding help from this route.

… end of the 4 part series

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The Inner Game of Trading by Robert Koppel and Howard Abell

Summary

A good summary of the psychological profile necessary for consistent profitability in trading. The strength of this book is that it is telling the story as it is – not everyone can become a great trader but it is possible to train anyone in becoming a good one as long as the person is willing to shape their minds into one. This is, however, also the weakness of the book as it can offend many people who think they know better.


Book Information

The Inner Game of Trading
Written by Robert Koppel and Howard Abell

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Continue reading “The Inner Game of Trading by Robert Koppel and Howard Abell”

Essence Of Trading: Why We Love Picking Tops and Bottoms (Part 2)

3d small people - wave of money… continue from part 1

Insecurity Associated With Trading Confirmed Signals

When being stopped out, you feel a lot more painful on confirmed signals comparing to taking a relatively smaller loss should your extreme picking not going your way.

The root to this problem is the uncomfortable feeling associated with trading confirmed signals. A confirmed signal is usually quite far away from the extreme that has been established. Even though you may have learned from many sources that trading a confirmed signal is better, you do not feel better because of the comparative perception of bigger risk with confirmed signal against the smaller risk associated with extreme picking.

What our perception failed to do, however, is taking into consideration of the likelihood that the smaller losses are going to happen way more frequently than the confirmed signal. Thus, instead of having strong positive expectancies from your trade, your scalping style top and bottom picking would net you at best a weak positive expectancy if not out right losing money consistently.

Pure Top and Bottom Picking Works If You Are A Scalper

There is this old saying, "Once a scalper, always a scalper."

If you are truthful to yourself and understand that you do not really know whether the market is going to turn or not at the extremes that you picked, and simply close out the position for a small profit during the pause with very tight stop, you will be become a successful scalper. Keep in mind that you will always feel awful when you see some of those tops you pick turning into major reversals.

You do have a choice – stay being a scalper and perfect the scalping skill, or transform yourself into a trader who are comfortable with riding a move.

Notice that scalping may not be a great choice as bots are quickly overwhelming the markets doing just that. They can scalp faster and better than majority of the human traders.

Switching Over Is Difficult But Necessary

Another consideration that faces many traders is that we do grow old. As we age, our trigger fingers will not be as fast as we were 5 years ago. Maybe you can still beat the bots scalping right now, but what about 5 years down the road? Or 10 years later? Moving onto a slower and more profitable strategy is necessary and unavoidable.

It is very difficult to incorporate both scalping and riding style at the same time. It is always easier to stick to one style at a time. For example, you may choose to switch to scalping because market condition suggests tight range trading, but sudden the condition may change and you have to decide if you are going to switch to riding the moves instead. The additional decision making can be quite stressful because a mistake in identifying the market condition will cost you dearly in performance. It will not work well in the long run. Many successful traders who started out scalping eventually drop the scalping style completely because it does not worth the time and energy to switch trading styles frequently.

Start By Doing It On Sim Or A Very Small Account

If you have some success with scalping but you are convinced that it is better to trade the stronger swing based signals, then consider doing it in sim account. If you can afford it you can also trade with a separate small account to make the training experience much more intense. Due to the way swing trading off chart patterns and strong structural bias do not require that much focus all the time, it is something you can do while you are still scalping with your normal account.

You will notice by forcing yourself to not focus that much on the separate account, you will actually develop best practice in handling the riding style because you are forced to stay hands off most of the time. Eventually you will gain the confidence needed to switch over.

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